I just stumbled across this mini essay that I wrote on the 11th June, 2019 as part of a Public Affairs Internship application for FTI Consulting. The essay is titled: Will the UK’s two-party system still exist in ten years’ time? Despite making some inaccurate predictions/comments (namely downplaying the significance of the SNP and overemphasizing the significance of the Green Party), most of the comments I make are accurate and still relevant to this day. Find the original essay below.
Will the UK’s two-party system still exist in ten years’ time?
Whether or not the UK’s two-party system still exists in ten years’ time depends on the outcome of Brexit. Despite the precarious situation of the two main parties, if the UK leaves the EU, the two-party system will likely still exist in ten years’ time. This is because the threat to the two-party system posed by smaller parties is linked to Brexit, but this threat would be weakened if the Brexit issue was resolved. However, if Brexit does not occur, then it is unlikely that the UK’s two-party system will exist in ten years’ time.
When considering recent events it is easy to conclude that the UK’s two-party system will cease to exist in ten years’ time. The Conservatives have failed to deliver Brexit and the Labour party has failed to put forth a clear vision for Brexit. Unsurprisingly, both of these parties performed dismally at the recent EU elections. Worse still, both parties are hopelessly divided. Clearly, these two parties are in a dire position. However, if the Brexit issue can be resolved, the two-party system is likely to survive.
For the two-party system to survive, the UK must leave the EU. This would diminish the threat to the two-party system posed by the pro-remain parties and the Brexit party. Importantly, the popularity of the Brexit party and the Lib Dems is due to their clear positions regarding Brexit. However, once the Brexit issue is resolved, these parties would become redundant. Their support would likely dwindle and they would no longer pose a threat to the two-party system. If the UK leaves the EU, disgruntled leave voters would be satisfied and support for the Brexit party would inevitably decrease. Similarly, if the UK leaves the EU, the Lib Dems would lose their support. This is because it will be harder for remain parties, like the Lib Dems, to make the case for re-joining the EU post-Brexit. Naturally, it is easier to make the case to stay in the EU rather than to re-join. Remain voters would recognise this and would be less enthusiastic to support this cause. The same argument applies to Change UK; if the UK leaves the EU, it would become a redundant party. Of course, remainers will be unsatisfied after Brexit, but most would eventually accept the outcome, especially those who respect democracy. Further to this, it is unclear whether people support the broader political agenda of either the Lib Dems or the Brexit party, which further questions the threat that these parties pose to the two-party system post-Brexit.
Although the situation concerning the other parties (the SNP, the Green Party and Plaid Cymru) is more complicated, the threat that these parties pose is minimal and would be weakened if Brexit occurs. This is because these parties, like the Brexit party and the Lib Dems, are issue-specific parties whose political agendas are not strong enough to mobilise the support required to challenge the two-party system. The SNP and Plaid Cymru have thus far struggled to mobilise enough support for their respective calls for independence. This failure leads one to question whether either of these parties could seriously challenge the two-party system. Realistically, the Green party poses the largest threat to the two-party system, but this threat is minimal and would vanish if the two main parties took the environment issue seriously.
All things considered, it is likely that the two-party system will still exist in ten years’ time because it embodies the natural political divide between the left and right. This divide is one the public both identifies with and understands.
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