Coronavirus has put the world on hold and we have heard much about how it has affected the economy and the health of the population. Yet, less has been said about how coronavirus might impact on the UK’s negotiations with the EU during the current transition period.
Last week, Michael Gove hinted that the upcoming Brexit talks may be put on hold due to health concerns arising from coronavirus. Indeed, one would expect that the negotiations would take a back seat as both the UK government and the respective EU states tackle the coronavirus crisis. And, given that the time-frame permitted for the negotiations is so short and given that the current circumstances arising due to coronavirus are so unique, one would also expect that the transition period would be extended beyond December. Yet, today Prime Minister Boris Johnson signalled that this would not be the case. When asked by Tom Newton Dunn if he would rule out extending the transition period there and then, or whether that might be something he would want to consider in the future, the Prime Minister responded that “there is legislation in place that I have no intention of changing.”
This statement suggests that the government intends to stick to its current Brexit strategy, which is to try to negotiate a trade deal with the EU before the end of the transition period in December or to leave the EU without a trade deal in place at the end of the transition period if this is not possible. It remains to be seen how the government will manage to negotiate a trade deal with the EU while it, along with its negotiating partner, battles the ongoing coronavirus crisis.
Despite the challenging circumstances that coronavirus poses for both the UK and the EU, the coronavirus crisis may play to the UK government’s advantage in its negotiations with the EU. It is fair to say that before the advent of coronavirus the UK was not in the strongest position vis-à-vis the EU as its economy had weakened as a result of Brexit. Yet, coronavirus has seriously impacted both the UK and the respective states that make up the EU. So, the onset of coronavirus may have levelled the playing field slightly between the UK and the EU going forward. If the UK government sticks to its strict December deadline and maintains the threat of leaving without a trade deal, the EU may be less willing to risk playing hardball in the negotiations. This is because the EU would not want to risk the possibility of a no-deal scenario with the UK as this would further damage its economy at a time when it is already very vulnerable due to the damage coronavirus has already caused.
Of course, it remains to be seen how the Brexit process will pan out over the next few months. A lot depends on the progression of the coronavirus. But, a lot also depends on how far the UK government is willing to push the EU in the negotiations over the next few months. Suffice to say, the current situation is unprecedented, with people dying and the global economy in free fall. If the UK government sticks to its current December deadline and maintains a tough stance in the negotiations, it may gain slightly more concessions from the EU in the final trade deal. However, this may come at a cost to its reputation as it is might be perceived as acting ruthlessly and insensitively during a crisis.
The politics blog 